The playoffs are coming up, and no NFL fan could be more excited. The Cowboys have made a great improvement from last season, the Raiders might also make a big appearance, and of course the Steelers clinched the division with an exciting Christmas effort. Though these teams have played well during the season, how well will they do during the playoffs? The playoffs are known to be a quite unpredictable battlefield between two good football teams, pushing to win the glorious Lombardi trophy.
Using data from 2002-15, I’ve calculated the probability of winning and/or making the Super Bowl by seed.I found that one seeds have rather surprising odds. Being that they’re the best teams in their conference of the NFL, you’d expect them to win more more often than they have in the past 14 seasons. In total, out of the 28 one seeds there have been in the past 14 seasons, 15 of them have made it to the Super Bowl (SB for future reference). But out of those 15, only 5 of them have won it all, and 3 of those coming from the past 3 seasons. In all here is the data:
I’ve explained that over half of one seeds make it to the Super Bowl, and only 1/3 of those teams win. But notice that after the two seeds, the data becomes statistically insignificant, meaning that if you’re a three seed or a wild card, your chances are equivalent. Speaking of wild cards, I find it pretty interesting that wild cards have never lost a SB.
This year, the Patriots and Cowboys have been portrayed as favorites, being the two one seeds of the year. But an 18% chance of winning it all isn’t something to get too excited about. And also, don’t expect much from the Chiefs or Falcons, because even if two seeds flipped a coin to win or lose a game, they should be making it 25% of the time, and winning 12.5% of the time. Now, I realize that home field and talent come into play as factors, but that should increase the chance of two seeds performing well, and they still haven’t caught up to expectations. So in closure, the playoffs is not a safe haven for the bye teams, and not exactly an insta-kill for wild cards. Anything can happen, and no seed is safe.
Caleb's Encyclopedia 