In honor of the March for Science which took place around the world, I’ve decided to share what science means to me, an eleven year old student. In general, science is our understanding and discovery of how the world works. Almost everything we know can be defined by science, how it works, what it is, why it does what it does.
Centuries ago, such as Ancient Greek times, people who didn’t understand science gave credit to their Gods. Continue Reading »
The playoffs are coming up, and no NFL fan could be more excited. The Cowboys have made a great improvement from last season, the Raiders might also make a big appearance, and of course the Steelers clinched the division with an exciting Christmas effort. Though these teams have played well during the season, how well will they do during the playoffs? The playoffs are known to be a quite unpredictable battlefield between two good football teams, pushing to win the glorious Lombardi trophy.
Using data from 2002-15, I’ve calculated the probability of winning and/or making the Super Bowl by seed.I found that one seeds have rather surprising odds. Being that they’re the best teams in their conference of the NFL, you’d expect them to win more more often than they have in the past 14 seasons. In total, out of the 28 one seeds there have been in the past 14 seasons, 15 of them have made it to the Super Bowl (SB for future reference). But out of those 15, only 5 of them have won it all, and 3 of those coming from the past 3 seasons. In all here is the data:
I’ve explained that over half of one seeds make it to the Super Bowl, and only 1/3 of those teams win. But notice that after the two seeds, the data becomes statistically insignificant, meaning that if you’re a three seed or a wild card, your chances are equivalent. Speaking of wild cards, I find it pretty interesting that wild cards have never lost a SB.
This year, the Patriots and Cowboys have been portrayed as favorites, being the two one seeds of the year. But an 18% chance of winning it all isn’t something to get too excited about. And also, don’t expect much from the Chiefs or Falcons, because even if two seeds flipped a coin to win or lose a game, they should be making it 25% of the time, and winning 12.5% of the time. Now, I realize that home field and talent come into play as factors, but that should increase the chance of two seeds performing well, and they still haven’t caught up to expectations. So in closure, the playoffs is not a safe haven for the bye teams, and not exactly an insta-kill for wild cards. Anything can happen, and no seed is safe.
Hey Jets fans! You listen too, Steelers fans! You may have 10 wins each in 2015, but don’t get excited. Experimentally, there is only a 40% chance either of you return to the playoffs next year. Like my last blog, my data goes back to 2002. So since 2002, teams with 10 wins go back to the playoffs 40% of the time. But, 37.5% of teams in the league make the playoffs per season. Meaning if you chose one random team of the 30 left, there is a better chance that the Jets or the Steelers would make the playoffs next year than that random team. But only barely.
But wait. I’ve only been typing about 10-win teams. What about the others? Your answer:
One thing that strikes me about this data is that, according to these results, a previously 4-win team has a 26% chance of making the playoffs next year based on win total last season. Maybe the Cowboys will have a half-decent season after all!
You may be surprised about the large spike at nine wins, and the smaller spike at 12 wins. If you look at the nine column you’ll see that it seems much higher than 8 or 10 wins, and it is. But if you look at the trend line, you’ll see that those win #s really just have a large, negative absolute deviation from the trend line. At 12 you may not be so surprised, but then look at the interval.13-16. And the large, positive absolute deviation from the trend line at 12 wins. The Broncos and Patriots have a 61% chance to make it to the playoffs in 2016 based on 2015 win total, while the Cards and Panthers have a 59% chance.
Now if we want to get more specific on your team’s position by week 17, then this would be something to look at:
Looking at this, the unsolved mystery (with Robert Stack) I see is the fact that all of the division winners last year are all more likely to miss the playoffs, rather than be a division leader. The reasons I say it is an unsolved mystery is 1.) I wanted to put a reference in this blog post, and 2.) it comes as a big surprise to me.
Overall, the correlation of last year’s win total and making the playoffs next season is 0.95. Now that is a surprisingly high correlation, considering 1 is perfect correlation. And going back to when I started with the Jets and the Steelers, they have a very slightly higher than normal chance to make the playoffs, but basically even with the other teams. So I wouldn’t be too confident in the Steelers or the Jets.
During the 2015 playoffs, there were two division leaders, the Washington Redskins, and the Houston Texans who went 9-7 (W-L) during the regular season. I did a little research, and I found out that if you go 9-7 you have a 60% chance of not making to the playoffs, much less be a division champion.
But then the New York Jets went 10-6, and didn’t make it to the playoffs. If a team goes 10-6, then there is an 82% chance that they make it to the playoffs. That means this season was an odd one, because the chance that two 9-7s are division leaders, and a 10-6 didn’t make the playoffs is less than 1%.
These probabilities are based off of results from the 2002-15 regular seasons. The reason I stopped the data at 2002 is because that was the year that the NFL expanded to 32 teams (Fun Fact: 2002 was the year where the Super Bowl was nicknamed the Pirate Bowl).
Below is a histogram about the distribution of wins in a season.
I think the high number of 8-8 seasons isn’t surprising, because it is the exact middle of the record possibilities. In fact, most of this data isn’t surprising to me, except the 3-13, and 14-2 seasons happened less often than they should have. In 2015, the Tennessee Titans were the worst team in the NFL, being 3-13, and in 2003, and 2004, the Patriots won both Super Bowls with a 14-2 record. These aren’t all of the examples, but some I remember.
Knowing the distribution of wins, how often do these teams make a specific position in the playoff? Find out below.
One really surprising thing about this data is that if you are 12-4, you have an 18% chance of being a wild card (5 or 6 seed in either conference). In 2008, the Indianapolis Colts were a #5 seed in the AFC, being 12-4. Being a wild card, the Colts had to play on the road, and eventually lost to the San Diego Chargers. Another surprising thing is that if a team goes 7-9 25 times, on average that team will win the division once, and miss the playoffs 24 times. Also, you might notice all of the lines intersect at about 9.5 wins. So if a team has 9 or 10 wins, those teams will usually have the most uncertain situation of making the playoffs.
In doing this, I realize that luck can be a factor in getting to the playoffs. A 7-9 team can actually make the playoffs as a division leader, and an 11-5 team can completely miss the playoffs altogether.
Data source: pro-football-reference.com
Source: National Geographic: 5,000 Awesome Facts(About Everything) 2
The Indonesian Boxfish was an inspiration-for a fuel-efficient Mercedes-Benz!
Puny, 6″, Vampire Squids protect themselves from predators by wrapping their arms around their bodies to make themselves look inside out!
Imagine a pale, white old man with no wrinkles, a frowning face, and a very large, floppy nose. Take away the body, limbs, and neck and you’ve got a Blobfish!
Reef Stonefish camouflage for an odd reason, not for protection from predators, but for killing fish, and in an odd way they do: they trick fish into touching the spines on their dorsal fins. Some of the most toxic poison in the world is injected into the fish, killing the fish.
The Great Barrier Reef dwelling, Christmas Tree Worm looks like a colorful, Christmas decoration, but when a predator comes close, looking for prey, Christmas Tree Worms wriggle their way into their caves.
The Gulf of Mexico dwelling Venus Flytrap Anemone has been claimed to look just like the land dwelling Venus Flytrap by people who’ve seen it, but instead of eating it’s prey, it stings it with it’s tentacles, and instead of eating insects it eats fish.
Furry, white Yeti Crabs have furry, whitish claws, making them look like underwater Abominable Snowmen.
Dumbo Octopuses have large, earlike fins than help them maneuver twilight/midnight zone waters.
The tiny four-inch long Pink Handfish moves around on floor of the ocean on its fins near Tasmania.
The Leafy Sea Dragon could be mistaken for seaweed and is a close relative of the sea horse.
The Deep-Sea Dana Octopus stuns its prey with light coming from its arms.
Giant Sea Spiders crawl on the Antarctic sea floor and are about the size of a dinner plate.
Denise’s Pygmy Seahorse is about the size of a paperclip.
Source: National Geographic 5,000 Awesome Facts (about everything), videos from youtube
One fourth of all Americans believe earth has been visited by extra-terrestrials.
Scientists have been looking for pollution on other planets. This would be a sign of technology produced by other life.
Some people used to believe martians built canals on Mars.
In 1938 a radio reported a meteorite that had smashed into a farm and New York was being invaded by tentacled martians. Thousands of people panicked.
98% of all stars in the universe could give planets life.
There are an average of 192 UFO’s come close enough to earth that we can see them per day, worldwide. An average of 70,080 come close enough we can see them per year. But only an average of 70,000 are reported per year, worldwide.
No UFO has ever been tracked by radar entering the earths atmosphere.
A fifth of Americans believe in alien abductions. However more men are part of that fifth than women.
A seventh of Americans say they have had an encounter with a UFO.
sources: National Geographic; newreality.com
British author Ian Fleming, who created the character James Bond was a SPY himself during world war II.
Aldrich Ames started working for the U.S. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY when he was in HIGH SCHOOL. Thirty years later, he was caught as a soviet DOUBLE AGENT.
In the james bond movies q makes futuristic gadgets and weapons for 007’s missions. the character is based on a real inventor who mastered disguising tools in ordinary objects like a tiny metal saw sewn inside shoelaces.
Bugs, which are small microphones, can be put inside everyday objects like pens to pick up conversations without being obvious.
Why do you US secret service agents talk into their watches? Because there is a tiny microphone inside used to talk to one another without drawing too much attention. Agents also wear an earpiece to listen for instructions.
An umbrella doesn’t seem like much of a spy weapon – but in the 1970s a spy used one to shoot a poison filled pellet at an unsuspecting man.
Some female spies during World War 2 gathered intelligence by posing as everyday housewives and using cameras described as purses.
Perry the Platypus, the secret agent platypus on the Disney show Phineas and Ferb, as his own theme song.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency once strapped cameras on pigeons trained to fly over enemy targets.
Josephine Baker, an American actress and dancer, volunteered to be a spy for the allies during World War 2. She passed along information she heard from Italians and Germans at parties.
During the American Revolution both sides used invisible ink when sending messages in the hopes they wouldn’t be detected. An invisible message was often written between the lines of an ordinary letter. When the recipient of the letter heated or soaked the letter in chemicals the message was revealed.
Special cameras can take pictures of text or images and shrink them down to the size of the period at the end of this sentence. Called microdots these easily hide information. In the movie Mission Impossible III a microdot was placed on the back of a stamp but instead of text it held a tiny video.
To catch a spy invisible detection powder can be applied to important paper. The powder blows on the spies hands under ultraviolet light – proof of snooping.
Spies are in space – in the form of satellites. Special satellites can see a grapefruit sitting on a picnic table from 250 miles (400 kilometers) above earth.
Spy kids: All The Time In The World added an extra D to 3D. In addition to the 3D glasses, movie goers got scratch and sniff cards so they could take in the smells of the film – from baking to candy to poop.
Source: 5,000 Awesome Facts About Everything – National Geographic Kids
you need about 540 peanuts to make a 12-ounce(340-g) jar of peanut butter.
1 acre (0.4 ha) of peanuts could make 30,000 peanut butter sandwiches.
carageenan, the ingredient that makes peanut butter so spreadable comes from seaweed.
people living on the east coast prefer creamy peanut butter; people living on the west coast prefer crunchy.
americans have elected two peanut farmers to be president: thomas jefferson and jimmy carter.
arachibutyrophobia is the fear of getting peanut butter stuck on the roof of your mouth.
the largest peanut butter and jelly sandwich weighed 1,342 pounds(609 kg)-about as much as a polar bear.
the world’s largest peanut butter factory produces 250,000 jars per day.
elvis presley the king of rock’n’roll famously loved to eat peanut butter and banana sandwiches.
the average american kid will eat 1,500 peanut butter and jelly sandwiches before he or she graduates from high school.
americans spend nearly $800 million dollars on peanut butter every year.
the US food and drug administration allows up to 29 insect fragments per 3.5 ounces(100 g) of peanut butter.
there is no butter in peanut butter.
a youtube video of a banana dancing to the song “it’s peanut butter and jelly time” has been viewed 21 million times.
astronauts in space eat peanut butter but not on bread-bread is too crumbly-and floating bits can get stuck in space craft filters or astronauts eyes.
source: national geographic 5,000 awesome facts about everything
Caleb's Encyclopedia 